For decades, global debates about population have centered on concerns about overpopulation and its impact on resources and ecosystems. In recent years however, a surprising new narrative has emerged: Growing anxiety over declining birth rates and a possible "population collapse". This shift has sparked a polarizing question. Should we encourage more people to drive innovation and economic growth, or should we embrace smaller populations to improve individual well-being and protect our planet? This article examines both sides, arguing that the quality of human life and equitable opportunities should matter far more than sheer numbers.

The promise of scale

In recent years, birth rates have been steadily declining across many parts of the world, especially in high-income regions. Current global population trends present contrast between regions experiencing rapid growth and those facing decline. According to the United Nations, the global population is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, with the majority of this growth concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population is projected to double (23). Conversely, many high-income regions, such as Europe and East Asia, are witnessing population decline due to low birth rates and aging populations. For example, Japan’s population is shrinking at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year, and similar trends are seen in countries like Germany and Italy (24). This demographic divergence will have profound implications for global development, governance, and environmental sustainability.

Furthermore, looking at birth rates, in Europe, for instance, the average fertility rate was approximately 1.5 children per woman in 2023, well below the replacement level of 2.1 (1). In contrast, countries in sub-Saharan Africa continue to report significantly higher fertility rates, averaging around 4.6 (2). The demographic divergence has implications for global development and sustainability. At the same time, population size does not directly correlate with environmental impact. High-income regions like Europe and North America, despite having smaller populations, contribute disproportionately to global greenhouse gas emissions, both in total and per capita (3, 4, 5). Understanding these dynamics is crucial when evaluating the arguments for or against population growth (18).

In light of these dynamics, advocates for a larger global population often emphasize the potential benefits of scale. They argue that a larger population increases the likelihood of producing more scientists, innovators, and entrepreneurs capable of solving humanity’s greatest challenges (6). Historically, large populations have often coincided with technological advancement, as seen during the Industrial Revolution, when rapid population growth encouraged significant innovations (7). Additionally, economists express concern that declining birth rates in many developed nations could slow economic growth, strain pension systems, and lead to labor shortages (8, 22). From this perspective, a larger base of young people is seen as essential for supporting aging populations and maintaining social stability.

Quality over quantity

Yet, the logic that "more people equals more progress" overlooks critical social realities. Today, families increasingly choose to have fewer children so they can dedicate more time and resources to each child’s education and well-being (9, 10, 11). This reflects a clear preference for quality over quantity, a logic that also holds true at the societal level.Societies thrive when they focus on raising fewer but better-nourished, better-educated, and more empowered individuals who can contribute to collective progress (12). A major flaw in the "more people" argument is its neglect of global education gaps. Even in high-income countries, many talented young people are blocked from higher education by economic and social barriers (13). In lower-income regions, these obstacles are even more severe due to poverty, conflict, and gender discrimination (14). Rather than increasing headcounts, creating inclusive, high-quality education systems would better unlock the potential of those already here.

Environmental considerations

Looking at the environmental point of view, a smaller, well-supported global population could significantly reduce humanity’s ecological footprint, slow climate change, and support biodiversity conservation. A global population closer to 500 million to one billion would make it much easier to preserve wild spaces and restore lands exploited for agriculture and industry. With fewer mouths to feed, there would be less incentive to clear rainforests, drain wetlands, or convert natural habitats into farmland (15, 16). To look into this a bit further, in 2024, the average ecological footprint per person was 2.8 global hectares, while Earth's biocapacity is only 1.6 gha per person. This highlights how unsustainable consumption patterns contribute to environmental degradation. In 2025, Earth Overshoot Day fell on July 25th, signaling that humanity used up its annual ecological budget in just seven months. With this said, it is not always the numbers that matter, but the lifestyle we choose to live (17). While this argument is focused on Western societies, it is important to note that regions with rapid population growth, particularly parts of Africa and Asia, are also seeing significant innovation in sustainable practices. For example, many African nations are implementing advanced agricultural techniques and renewable energy solutions, aiming to balance population growth with environmental preservation.

Addressing rapid growth today

At the same time, rapid population growth in certain regions remains an urgent challenge, placing pressure on governance structures and the environment. High birth rates in these areas often coincide with restricted rights and opportunities for women and girls, especially regarding reproductive choices. Investing in health, education, and gender equality can empower women, stabilize communities, and improve economic resilience.

While global population decline may become an issue in specific regions in the distant future, focusing on that risk now can distract from the urgent needs of today's rapidly growing populations, especially in the world's poorest and most vulnerable communities (23).

Choosing the future we want

True progress is not driven by the sheer volume of people but by the opportunities and support provided to each individual. Societies flourish when they invest in quality education, equitable healthcare, and genuine gender equality, not when they simply expand headcounts without addressing systemic barriers.

A smaller, well-supported population offers a realistic path toward preserving ecosystems and reducing carbon emissions. History teaches us that human advancement depends on whether we have the freedom, security, and resources to reach our full potential.

At the same time, we cannot ignore the pressing issues posed by population growth in many parts of the world. Supporting women’s rights, strengthening education, and expanding access to healthcare are essential steps toward creating stable, thriving societies.Instead of worrying about hypothetical future declines, we must focus on meeting the needs of those already here. The choice is ours. Shall we?

This article is part of The Outside World, ftrprf’s very own research center.

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