On 15 November 2022, the United Nations (UN) announced that the global population has hit a milestone: our global population has reached 8 billion people (1). Yet, by 2100, 97% of countries will not have fertility rates high enough to sustain their population sizes over time (2). Africa is the only continent with significant population growth, with its current 1.4 billion population forecasted to reach 2.5 billion people in 2050 (3). China currently has a population of 1.4 billion people, but this will have shrunk by more than half in 2100 (4). These all sound like fascinating numbers, but what do they actually tell us? What is the impact of this demographic shift?

Demography is destiny

Before delving further into the numbers, let’s pause and wonder why we should care about global demographic changes. Already in the 19th century, French philosopher Auguste Comte (1798-1857) emphasized on how demographic changes influence many social, economic and political developments. His quote “demography is destiny” illustrates the idea that demographic developments determine the future of a country or region (5).

Demographic structures are closely related with the money that a government is able to collect and thus able to spend. Graphs known as ‘population pyramids’ provide telling insights. The bars provide an indication of the size of the age group, and over the years you can see the change in composition of different generations in a society.

A few differences you can see between these graphs depicting the Dutch population in 1950 (left) and 2025 (right): firstly, the graph of 2025 is much more voluminous, indicating that the Dutch population in 2025 is much bigger than in 1950; secondly, the 1950 graph is closer to an actual pyramid, indicating that there are more young people and less elderly people; thirdly, the absolute and relative number of elderly people in 2025 is much greater than in 1950 (and people become older than in 195); and finally, there are less young people in 2025 than in 1950.

Arguably, there are many more things to derive from such graphs and many underlying factors that explain these differences. One aspect to highlight is the relationship between the size of the workforce and retired population. With demographic changes, the share of the working population changes as well, and with many more elderly people living much longer, that influences how much money the government receives to support public welfare programs. Thus, demographic changes have inherent political consequences (7).

Demographic shifts to watch

1. Ageing populations

By now most people will have heard about the ageing populations, especially in many western democracies. A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is required to keep a country’s population stable (when not accounting for migration). Fifty years ago, Japan was one of the first countries to see its fertility rate drop below 2.1 children per woman. Since then, many other countries have similar birth rates (8). It is important to stress that in many ways, lower fertility rates are a success story: it reflects better and easier available contraception, women actively choosing their if, when, and how many children they want, and opportunities in education and employment (9).

Japan currently has a birth rate of 1.3 children per woman, while 28% of its population is above 65 (10). In societies with such a large portion of people above 65, there is a relatively bigger demand for healthcare and healthcare professionals. Similar developments in the Netherlands would require 25% of its workforce to work in the healthcare sector by 2040 (11). There is great potential to integrate technological innovations to decrease the pressure on healthcare professionals while improving efficiency in the healthcare sector (12).

Improved healthcare has allowed many people to grow older, while better access to anticonception (combined with changes in many social-economic structures surrounding economic participation of women) has reduced the number of children born. In most countries, migration has not been able to compensate for the gap in the labour force (13).

2. Shrinking populations

In 2022, the United Nations announced that the world has reached its biggest population yet: 8 billion people. What received less media attention was the nuance that the UN sees a much slower population growth. It took 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, but to grow to 9 billion people is forecasted to take about 14.5 years (in 2037). Slow growth is expected to continue, with the world reaching a peak of around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s (14).

Yet, this growth is not the same across the globe. By 2050, more than 75% (155 of 204) of the countries will have a fertility rate lower than 2.1 children per woman, thus not sustaining its population size over time. By 2100, this will have increased to 97% (198 of 204) (15). This means that the forecasted global population growth will only exist in certain countries, whereas there are already countries that currently experience a population decrease.

At this moment, China accounts for one sixth of the global population with 1.4 billion people (16). Yet, since 2022, its population has been decreasing (17). China’s population decrease is much quicker than anticipated, with previous models expecting China’s population to grow until at least 2030 (18). In 2022, Pew Research Center reported that China’s population will decrease to 800 million by 2100 (19). However, in 2024, Victoria University published that the decrease will go much further, most likely all the way down to 525 million people in 2100. Even more drastically, China’s working-age population is expected to fall to just 210 million by 2100, which is only 20% of its peak in 2014 (20). Fundamentally, this means that China (as well as 197 other countries) will not be able to rely on human capital in their economic models in the same way as they currently do.

3. Growing populations

Populations are, however, not decreasing everywhere. Africa is the only continent that experiences any significant population growth. By 2050, 25% of the global population is African. This will not only transform many African societies, but also how they interact with the world (21). The International Monetary Fund has fittingly dubbed the next century as ‘the African Century’. Most distinct is that Africa will (continue to) have a large workforce, whereas many other countries around the globe experience an economically difficult situation with a smaller workforce and a relatively large retired population. This means that there will be many economic opportunities for African countries, especially in a future where many other countries experience gaps in their labour force because of ageing populations (22). This is not a temporary change: more than 50% of births after 2100 are expected to be in sub-Saharan Africa (23). It will be crucial for African countries to set out government policies that support economic opportunities for these younger generations adding to the workforce, potentially working closely with other countries that experience labour shortages because of their ageing and shrinking populations.

“Go home and multiply”

Influencing demographics is as old as time. Killing your opponents to gain the upper hand is certainly no new war tactic, and slavery, not to disregard how immoral and cruel, created an additional work force.

Yet, increasingly, governments use tools such as restrictions, benefits, and subsidies to stimulate a demographic transition for their own people. China was one of the first countries to do so, with its one-child policy. From 1980 to 2015, couples were only allowed to have one child. This was introduced to ensure that economic growth could uphold the population growth that China was experiencing. In 2015, the policy was loosened a bit, with couples being allowed to have a second child, and since 2021 couples are allowed to have three children (24).

Countries such as Japan and South Korea are actively trying to make it more appealing to have more children, for instance through financial incentives. But also more radical approaches are brought to the discussion table. The Japanese government has told its citizens very directly to “have more children” and to “go home and multiply” (25). A South Korean government affiliated thinktank has suggested for girls to start school one year ahead of boys, “creating a one-year age gap between girls and boys at school would make them more attractive to each other by the time they reached marriageable age” (26). Naoki Hyakuta, Japan's Conservative Party leader, proposed in 2024 for Japanese girls from the age of 18 onwards not be allowed to attend university and for women over the age of 30 to have their uterus removed. All to stimulate Japanese women to have children at a younger age (27). With such statements, demography is quickly becoming very politicized.

Thus far, demographic changes are often analysed through a national lens. Yet, such fundamental changes in our global population affect beyond state borders. An immediate thought might be: less people require less resources and that should be better for our environment. And to a certain extent that is true, but research has thus far shown that global inequalities need to be addressed before population decline leads to preferable climate outcomes (28). There is, however, surprisingly little (published) research on how these major demographic shifts impact the global battle against climate change.

Similarly, changing demographics also need to be seen through an international lens. A country like China has large ambitions and relatively less time to use its size as an advantage. That influences the patience it might be willing to show in political disputes like Taiwan, the South China Sea, or in the Himalayas. Similarly, there are many countries in Africa that are currently already experiencing a large percentage in unemployment. With an evergrowing younger population that adds to the African workforce, this becomes even more dire (29).

Change creates opportunities. The future might not lie in the baby-making campaigns approach that the Japanese have chosen. Rather, the demographic shift provides an opportunity to evaluate how our societies are organized, and to ensure that we have futureproofed our workforce and pension systems, while also maintaining our reproductive freedom. Shall we?

This article is part of The Outside World, ftrprf’s very own research center.

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